Phuket Rentals presents

Every match of the 2026 World Cup, predicted.

Score & winner forecasts for all 104 games — each with confidence factors, AI match analysis, and a track record that grades itself after every final whistle. Watch the football from your own private pool in Phuket.

Book your Phuket stay See the predictions
72matches predicted
58%winner accuracy
5of 36 exact scores
20within ±1 goal

Projected knockouts

The Road to the Final

Our model finishes the group tables, seeds all 32, and predicts every tie to the trophy — fully projected while the groups play out. Tap any game for its prediction.

🏆 Projected championArgentina flagArgentina

The infographic

The Prediction Board

Every fixture, our predicted scoreline and winner, and how confident the model is — graded live against the real result.

36played
36still to come
58%winners right
winner right missed exact score locked pre-match backtested
Group A Matchday 1 backtested
Mexico flagMexico
1–0
predicted
South Africa flagSouth Africa
Prediction Mexico flag Mexico to win
67%
Mexico +90 Elo Expected goals 2.0 – 0.7
2–0full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group A Matchday 1 backtested
South Korea flagSouth Korea
0–1
predicted
Czech Republic flagCzech Republic
Prediction Czech Republic flag Czech Republic to win
40%
Czech Republic +20 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3
2–1full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group B Matchday 2 backtested
Canada flagCanada
1–0
predicted
Bosnia & Herzegovina flagBosnia & Herzegovina
Prediction Canada flag Canada to win
53%
Canada +10 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9
1–1full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group D Matchday 2 backtested
USA flagUSA
1–0
predicted
Paraguay flagParaguay
Prediction USA flag USA to win
66%
USA +80 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.7
4–1full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group B Matchday 3 backtested
Qatar flagQatar
0–1
predicted
Switzerland flagSwitzerland
Prediction Switzerland flag Switzerland to win
62%
Switzerland +140 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.8
1–1full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group C Matchday 3 backtested
Brazil flagBrazil
1–0
predicted
Morocco flagMorocco
Prediction Brazil flag Brazil to win
65%
Brazil +155 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.8
1–1full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group C Matchday 3 backtested
Haiti flagHaiti
0–1
predicted
Scotland flagScotland
Prediction Scotland flag Scotland to win
66%
Scotland +165 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 2.0
0–1full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score
Match analysis →
Group D Matchday 3 backtested
Australia flagAustralia
0–1
predicted
Turkey flagTurkey
Prediction Turkey flag Turkey to win
46%
Turkey +55 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.4
2–0full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group E Matchday 4 backtested
Germany flagGermany
3–0
predicted
Curaçao flagCuraçao
Prediction Germany flag Germany to win
91%
Germany +360 Elo Expected goals 3.5 – 0.4
7–1full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group F Matchday 4 backtested
Netherlands flagNetherlands
1–0
predicted
Japan flagJapan
Prediction Netherlands flag Netherlands to win
64%
Netherlands +150 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.8
2–2full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group E Matchday 4 backtested
Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast
0–1
predicted
Ecuador flagEcuador
Prediction Ecuador flag Ecuador to win
42%
Ecuador +30 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3
1–0full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group F Matchday 4 backtested
Sweden flagSweden
1–0
predicted
Tunisia flagTunisia
Prediction Sweden flag Sweden to win
47%
Sweden +60 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0
5–1full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group H Matchday 5 backtested
Spain flagSpain
4–0
predicted
Cape Verde flagCape Verde
Prediction Spain flag Spain to win
93%
Spain +415 Elo Expected goals 4.2 – 0.3
0–0full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group G Matchday 5 backtested
Belgium flagBelgium
2–0
predicted
Egypt flagEgypt
Prediction Belgium flag Belgium to win
71%
Belgium +190 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7
1–1full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group H Matchday 5 backtested
Saudi Arabia flagSaudi Arabia
0–2
predicted
Uruguay flagUruguay
Prediction Uruguay flag Uruguay to win
77%
Uruguay +230 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.4
1–1full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group G Matchday 5 backtested
Iran flagIran
1–0
predicted
New Zealand flagNew Zealand
Prediction Iran flag Iran to win
66%
Iran +160 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.7
2–2full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group I Matchday 6 backtested
France flagFrance
2–0
predicted
Senegal flagSenegal
Prediction France flag France to win
79%
France +240 Elo Expected goals 2.5 – 0.6
3–1full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group I Matchday 6 backtested
Iraq flagIraq
0–1
predicted
Norway flagNorway
Prediction Norway flag Norway to win
66%
Norway +160 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 1.9
1–4full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group J Matchday 6 backtested
Argentina flagArgentina
3–0
predicted
Algeria flagAlgeria
Prediction Argentina flag Argentina to win
90%
Argentina +345 Elo Expected goals 3.4 – 0.4
3–0full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score
Match analysis →
Group J Matchday 6 backtested
Austria flagAustria
1–0
predicted
Jordan flagJordan
Prediction Austria flag Austria to win
64%
Austria +150 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.8
3–1full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group K Matchday 7 backtested
Portugal flagPortugal
2–0
predicted
DR Congo flagDR Congo
Prediction Portugal flag Portugal to win
86%
Portugal +295 Elo Expected goals 2.9 – 0.5
1–1full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group L Matchday 7 backtested
England flagEngland
1–0
predicted
Croatia flagCroatia
Prediction England flag England to win
56%
England +105 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9
4–2full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group L Matchday 7 backtested
Ghana flagGhana
1–0
predicted
Panama flagPanama
Prediction Ghana flag Ghana to win
43%
Ghana +40 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.1
1–0full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score
Match analysis →
Group K Matchday 7 backtested
Uzbekistan flagUzbekistan
0–2
predicted
Colombia flagColombia
Prediction Colombia flag Colombia to win
73%
Colombia +205 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.2
1–3full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group A Matchday 8 backtested
Czech Republic flagCzech Republic
1–0
predicted
South Africa flagSouth Africa
Prediction Czech Republic flag Czech Republic to win
46%
Czech Republic +55 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0
1–1full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group B Matchday 8 backtested
Switzerland flagSwitzerland
1–0
predicted
Bosnia & Herzegovina flagBosnia & Herzegovina
Prediction Switzerland flag Switzerland to win
52%
Switzerland +86 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9
4–1full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group B Matchday 8 backtested
Canada flagCanada
1–0
predicted
Qatar flagQatar
Prediction Canada flag Canada to win
58%
Canada +36 Elo Expected goals 1.7 – 0.8
6–0full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group A Matchday 8 backtested
Mexico flagMexico
1–0
predicted
South Korea flagSouth Korea
Prediction Mexico flag Mexico to win
59%
Mexico +45 Elo Expected goals 1.7 – 0.8
1–0full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score
Match analysis →
Group D Matchday 9 backtested
USA flagUSA
1–0
predicted
Australia flagAustralia
Prediction USA flag USA to win
63%
USA +63 Elo Expected goals 1.8 – 0.8
2–0full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group C Matchday 9 backtested
Scotland flagScotland
0–1
predicted
Morocco flagMorocco
Prediction Morocco flag Morocco to win
59%
Morocco +122 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.7
0–1full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score
Match analysis →
Group C Matchday 9 backtested
Brazil flagBrazil
4–0
predicted
Haiti flagHaiti
Prediction Brazil flag Brazil to win
93%
Brazil +448 Elo Expected goals 4.6 – 0.3
3–0full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group D Matchday 9 backtested
Turkey flagTurkey
1–0
predicted
Paraguay flagParaguay
Prediction Turkey flag Turkey to win
43%
Turkey +38 Elo Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1
0–1full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group F Matchday 10 backtested
Netherlands flagNetherlands
2–0
predicted
Sweden flagSweden
Prediction Netherlands flag Netherlands to win
69%
Netherlands +181 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7
5–1full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group E Matchday 10 backtested
Germany flagGermany
2–0
predicted
Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast
Prediction Germany flag Germany to win
71%
Germany +191 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7
2–1full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group E Matchday 10 backtested
Ecuador flagEcuador
2–0
predicted
Curaçao flagCuraçao
Prediction Ecuador flag Ecuador to win
68%
Ecuador +171 Elo Expected goals 2.0 – 0.7
0–0full time ✗ missed
Match analysis →
Group F Matchday 10 backtested
Tunisia flagTunisia
0–2
predicted
Japan flagJapan
Prediction Japan flag Japan to win
69%
Japan +179 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 2.1
0–4full time ✓ winner called
Match analysis →
Group H Matchday 11 locked
Spain flagSpain
3–0
predicted
Saudi Arabia flagSaudi Arabia
Prediction Spain flag Spain to win
91%
Spain +353 Elo Expected goals 3.5 – 0.4
2026-06-21 · 12:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group G Matchday 11 locked
Belgium flagBelgium
2–0
predicted
Iran flagIran
Prediction Belgium flag Belgium to win
68%
Belgium +173 Elo Expected goals 2.0 – 0.7
2026-06-21 · 12:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Group H Matchday 11 locked
Uruguay flagUruguay
2–0
predicted
Cape Verde flagCape Verde
Prediction Uruguay flag Uruguay to win
77%
Uruguay +228 Elo Expected goals 2.4 – 0.6
2026-06-21 · 18:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group G Matchday 11 locked
New Zealand flagNew Zealand
0–1
predicted
Egypt flagEgypt
Prediction Egypt flag Egypt to win
63%
Egypt +147 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.9
2026-06-21 · 18:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Group J Matchday 12 locked
Argentina flagArgentina
2–0
predicted
Austria flagAustria
Prediction Argentina flag Argentina to win
85%
Argentina +289 Elo Expected goals 2.9 – 0.5
2026-06-22 · 12:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Group I Matchday 12 locked
France flagFrance
4–0
predicted
Iraq flagIraq
Prediction France flag France to win
93%
France +456 Elo Expected goals 4.6 – 0.3
2026-06-22 · 17:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group I Matchday 12 locked
Norway flagNorway
1–0
predicted
Senegal flagSenegal
Prediction Norway flag Norway to win
39%
Norway +16 Elo Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1
2026-06-22 · 20:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group J Matchday 12 locked
Jordan flagJordan
0–1
predicted
Algeria flagAlgeria
Prediction Algeria flag Algeria to win
57%
Algeria +116 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.7
2026-06-22 · 20:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Group K Matchday 13 locked
Portugal flagPortugal
3–0
predicted
Uzbekistan flagUzbekistan
Prediction Portugal flag Portugal to win
88%
Portugal +315 Elo Expected goals 3.1 – 0.5
2026-06-23 · 12:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Group L Matchday 13 locked
England flagEngland
3–0
predicted
Ghana flagGhana
Prediction England flag England to win
88%
England +314 Elo Expected goals 3.1 – 0.5
2026-06-23 · 16:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group L Matchday 13 locked
Panama flagPanama
0–2
predicted
Croatia flagCroatia
Prediction Croatia flag Croatia to win
79%
Croatia +241 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.5
2026-06-23 · 19:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group K Matchday 13 locked
Colombia flagColombia
2–0
predicted
DR Congo flagDR Congo
Prediction Colombia flag Colombia to win
70%
Colombia +185 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7
2026-06-23 · 20:00 UTC -6
Why we picked this →
Group B Matchday 14 locked
Switzerland flagSwitzerland
1–0
predicted
Canada flagCanada
Prediction Switzerland flag Switzerland to win
37%
Switzerland +84 Elo Expected goals 1.2 – 1.2
2026-06-24 · 12:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Group B Matchday 14 locked
Bosnia & Herzegovina flagBosnia & Herzegovina
1–0
predicted
Qatar flagQatar
Prediction Bosnia & Herzegovina flag Bosnia & Herzegovina to win
43%
Bosnia & Herzegovina +40 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.1
2026-06-24 · 12:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Group C Matchday 14 locked
Scotland flagScotland
0–2
predicted
Brazil flagBrazil
Prediction Brazil flag Brazil to win
84%
Brazil +278 Elo Expected goals 0.5 – 2.8
2026-06-24 · 18:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group C Matchday 14 locked
Morocco flagMorocco
3–0
predicted
Haiti flagHaiti
Prediction Morocco flag Morocco to win
89%
Morocco +332 Elo Expected goals 3.3 – 0.4
2026-06-24 · 18:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group A Matchday 14 locked
Czech Republic flagCzech Republic
0–2
predicted
Mexico flagMexico
Prediction Mexico flag Mexico to win
67%
Mexico +91 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 2.0
2026-06-24 · 19:00 UTC -6
Why we picked this →
Group A Matchday 14 locked
South Africa flagSouth Africa
0–1
predicted
South Korea flagSouth Korea
Prediction South Korea flag South Korea to win
48%
South Korea +64 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.5
2026-06-24 · 19:00 UTC -6
Why we picked this →
Group E Matchday 15 locked
Curaçao flagCuraçao
0–1
predicted
Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast
Prediction Ivory Coast flag Ivory Coast to win
67%
Ivory Coast +169 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 2.0
2026-06-25 · 16:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group E Matchday 15 locked
Ecuador flagEcuador
0–2
predicted
Germany flagGermany
Prediction Germany flag Germany to win
77%
Germany +232 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.4
2026-06-25 · 16:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group F Matchday 15 locked
Japan flagJapan
1–0
predicted
Sweden flagSweden
Prediction Japan flag Japan to win
53%
Japan +93 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9
2026-06-25 · 18:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Group F Matchday 15 locked
Tunisia flagTunisia
0–3
predicted
Netherlands flagNetherlands
Prediction Netherlands flag Netherlands to win
91%
Netherlands +355 Elo Expected goals 0.4 – 3.5
2026-06-25 · 18:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Group D Matchday 15 locked
Turkey flagTurkey
0–2
predicted
USA flagUSA
Prediction USA flag USA to win
74%
USA +132 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.3
2026-06-25 · 19:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Group D Matchday 15 locked
Paraguay flagParaguay
0–1
predicted
Australia flagAustralia
Prediction Australia flag Australia to win
39%
Australia +16 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3
2026-06-25 · 19:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Group I Matchday 16 locked
Norway flagNorway
0–2
predicted
France flagFrance
Prediction France flag France to win
80%
France +251 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.5
2026-06-26 · 15:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group I Matchday 16 locked
Senegal flagSenegal
2–0
predicted
Iraq flagIraq
Prediction Senegal flag Senegal to win
71%
Senegal +189 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7
2026-06-26 · 15:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group H Matchday 16 locked
Cape Verde flagCape Verde
0–1
predicted
Saudi Arabia flagSaudi Arabia
Prediction Saudi Arabia flag Saudi Arabia to win
40%
Saudi Arabia +24 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3
2026-06-26 · 19:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Group H Matchday 16 locked
Uruguay flagUruguay
0–1
predicted
Spain flagSpain
Prediction Spain flag Spain to win
64%
Spain +149 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.9
2026-06-26 · 18:00 UTC -6
Why we picked this →
Group G Matchday 16 locked
Egypt flagEgypt
1–0
predicted
Iran flagIran
Prediction Egypt flag Egypt to win
37%
Egypt +6 Elo Expected goals 1.2 – 1.2
2026-06-26 · 20:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Group G Matchday 16 locked
New Zealand flagNew Zealand
0–3
predicted
Belgium flagBelgium
Prediction Belgium flag Belgium to win
88%
Belgium +314 Elo Expected goals 0.5 – 3.1
2026-06-26 · 20:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Group L Matchday 17 locked
Panama flagPanama
0–3
predicted
England flagEngland
Prediction England flag England to win
93%
England +394 Elo Expected goals 0.4 – 3.9
2026-06-27 · 17:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group L Matchday 17 locked
Croatia flagCroatia
1–0
predicted
Ghana flagGhana
Prediction Croatia flag Croatia to win
66%
Croatia +161 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.7
2026-06-27 · 17:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group K Matchday 17 locked
Colombia flagColombia
0–1
predicted
Portugal flagPortugal
Prediction Portugal flag Portugal to win
51%
Portugal +79 Elo Expected goals 0.9 – 1.5
2026-06-27 · 19:30 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group K Matchday 17 locked
DR Congo flagDR Congo
1–0
predicted
Uzbekistan flagUzbekistan
Prediction DR Congo flag DR Congo to win
45%
DR Congo +51 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0
2026-06-27 · 19:30 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Group J Matchday 17 locked
Algeria flagAlgeria
0–1
predicted
Austria flagAustria
Prediction Austria flag Austria to win
50%
Austria +75 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.5
2026-06-27 · 21:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Group J Matchday 17 locked
Jordan flagJordan
0–4
predicted
Argentina flagArgentina
Prediction Argentina flag Argentina to win
93%
Argentina +480 Elo Expected goals 0.3 – 4.6
2026-06-27 · 21:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
South Korea flagSouth Korea
1–0
predicted
Canada flagCanada
Prediction South Korea flag South Korea to advance
43%
South Korea +38 Elo Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1
2026-06-28 · 12:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Brazil flagBrazil
1–0
predicted
Japan flagJapan
Prediction Brazil flag Brazil to advance
63%
Brazil +145 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.8
2026-06-29 · 12:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Germany flagGermany
2–0
predicted
Bosnia & Herzegovina flagBosnia & Herzegovina
Prediction Germany flag Germany to advance
85%
Germany +285 Elo Expected goals 2.8 – 0.5
2026-06-29 · 16:30 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Netherlands flagNetherlands
1–0
predicted
Morocco flagMorocco
Prediction Netherlands flag Netherlands to advance
56%
Netherlands +107 Elo Expected goals 1.7 – 0.9
2026-06-29 · 19:00 UTC -6
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast
0–1
predicted
Norway flagNorway
Prediction Norway flag Norway to advance
45%
Norway +49 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.4
2026-06-30 · 12:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
France flagFrance
3–0
predicted
Saudi Arabia flagSaudi Arabia
Prediction France flag France to advance
93%
France +399 Elo Expected goals 4.0 – 0.4
2026-06-30 · 17:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Mexico flagMexico
1–0
predicted
Sweden flagSweden
Prediction Mexico flag Mexico to advance
52%
Mexico +85 Elo Expected goals 1.5 – 0.9
2026-06-30 · 19:00 UTC -6
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
England flagEngland
3–0
predicted
DR Congo flagDR Congo
Prediction England flag England to advance
89%
England +334 Elo Expected goals 3.3 – 0.4
2026-07-01 · 12:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Belgium flagBelgium
2–0
predicted
Algeria flagAlgeria
Prediction Belgium flag Belgium to advance
76%
Belgium +220 Elo Expected goals 2.3 – 0.6
2026-07-01 · 13:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
USA flagUSA
1–0
predicted
Senegal flagSenegal
Prediction USA flag USA to advance
46%
USA +55 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0
2026-07-01 · 17:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Spain flagSpain
2–0
predicted
Austria flagAustria
Prediction Spain flag Spain to advance
79%
Spain +240 Elo Expected goals 2.5 – 0.6
2026-07-02 · 12:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Colombia flagColombia
0–1
predicted
Croatia flagCroatia
Prediction Croatia flag Croatia to advance
38%
Croatia +12 Elo Expected goals 1.2 – 1.2
2026-07-02 · 19:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Switzerland flagSwitzerland
1–0
predicted
Scotland flagScotland
Prediction Switzerland flag Switzerland to advance
61%
Switzerland +132 Elo Expected goals 1.8 – 0.8
2026-07-02 · 20:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Australia flagAustralia
0–1
predicted
Egypt flagEgypt
Prediction Egypt flag Egypt to advance
42%
Egypt +30 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3
2026-07-03 · 13:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Argentina flagArgentina
2–0
predicted
Uruguay flagUruguay
Prediction Argentina flag Argentina to advance
77%
Argentina +227 Elo Expected goals 2.4 – 0.6
2026-07-03 · 18:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Round of 32 Round of 32 projected
Portugal flagPortugal
3–0
predicted
Paraguay flagParaguay
Prediction Portugal flag Portugal to advance
87%
Portugal +307 Elo Expected goals 3.0 – 0.5
2026-07-03 · 20:30 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Round of 16 Round of 16 projected
South Korea flagSouth Korea
0–2
predicted
Netherlands flagNetherlands
Prediction Netherlands flag Netherlands to advance
79%
Netherlands +239 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.5
2026-07-04 · 12:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Round of 16 Round of 16 projected
Germany flagGermany
0–1
predicted
France flagFrance
Prediction France flag France to advance
54%
France +97 Elo Expected goals 0.9 – 1.6
2026-07-04 · 17:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Round of 16 Round of 16 projected
Brazil flagBrazil
2–0
predicted
Norway flagNorway
Prediction Brazil flag Brazil to advance
72%
Brazil +197 Elo Expected goals 2.2 – 0.7
2026-07-05 · 16:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Round of 16 Round of 16 projected
Mexico flagMexico
0–2
predicted
England flagEngland
Prediction England flag England to advance
74%
England +210 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.3
2026-07-05 · 18:00 UTC -6
Why we picked this →
Round of 16 Round of 16 projected
Croatia flagCroatia
0–1
predicted
Spain flagSpain
Prediction Spain flag Spain to advance
63%
Spain +147 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.9
2026-07-06 · 14:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Round of 16 Round of 16 projected
USA flagUSA
0–1
predicted
Belgium flagBelgium
Prediction Belgium flag Belgium to advance
53%
Belgium +93 Elo Expected goals 0.9 – 1.6
2026-07-06 · 17:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Round of 16 Round of 16 projected
Argentina flagArgentina
3–0
predicted
Egypt flagEgypt
Prediction Argentina flag Argentina to advance
89%
Argentina +325 Elo Expected goals 3.2 – 0.5
2026-07-07 · 12:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Round of 16 Round of 16 projected
Switzerland flagSwitzerland
0–1
predicted
Portugal flagPortugal
Prediction Portugal flag Portugal to advance
64%
Portugal +150 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.9
2026-07-07 · 13:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Quarter-final Quarter-final projected
France flagFrance
1–0
predicted
Netherlands flagNetherlands
Prediction France flag France to advance
52%
France +86 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9
2026-07-09 · 16:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Quarter-final Quarter-final projected
Spain flagSpain
1–0
predicted
Belgium flagBelgium
Prediction Spain flag Spain to advance
56%
Spain +108 Elo Expected goals 1.7 – 0.9
2026-07-10 · 12:00 UTC -7
Why we picked this →
Quarter-final Quarter-final projected
Brazil flagBrazil
0–1
predicted
England flagEngland
Prediction England flag England to advance
41%
England +24 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3
2026-07-11 · 17:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Quarter-final Quarter-final projected
Argentina flagArgentina
1–0
predicted
Portugal flagPortugal
Prediction Argentina flag Argentina to advance
56%
Argentina +106 Elo Expected goals 1.7 – 0.9
2026-07-11 · 20:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Semi-final Semi-final projected
France flagFrance
1–0
predicted
Spain flagSpain
Prediction France flag France to advance
42%
France +34 Elo Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1
2026-07-14 · 14:00 UTC -5
Why we picked this →
Semi-final Semi-final projected
England flagEngland
0–1
predicted
Argentina flagArgentina
Prediction Argentina flag Argentina to advance
48%
Argentina +63 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.4
2026-07-15 · 15:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Match for third place Match for third place projected
Spain flagSpain
1–0
predicted
England flagEngland
Prediction Spain flag Spain to advance
37%
Spain +7 Elo Expected goals 1.2 – 1.2
2026-07-18 · 17:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →
Final Final projected
France flagFrance
0–1
predicted
Argentina flagArgentina
Prediction Argentina flag Argentina to advance
40%
Argentina +21 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3
2026-07-19 · 15:00 UTC -4
Why we picked this →

Group stage

Group Tables — predicted vs actual

Each group's projected final points (Pred) beside the points banked so far (Now). The top two — our predicted qualifiers — are highlighted; arrows flag who's over- or under-performing the model.

Group A
#TeamNowPred
1 Mexico flagMexico▲ 62/3 9
2 South Korea flagSouth Korea▲ 32/3 6
3 Czech Republic flagCzech Republic▼ 12/3 1
4 South Africa flagSouth Africa 12/3 1
Group B
#TeamNowPred
1 Switzerland flagSwitzerland 42/3 7
2 Canada flagCanada 42/3 4
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina flagBosnia & Herzegovina 12/3 4
4 Qatar flagQatar 12/3 1
Group C
#TeamNowPred
1 Brazil flagBrazil▼ 42/3 7
2 Morocco flagMorocco▲ 42/3 7
3 Scotland flagScotland 32/3 3
4 Haiti flagHaiti 02/3 0
Group D
#TeamNowPred
1 USA flagUSA▲ 62/3 9
2 Australia flagAustralia▲ 32/3 6
3 Paraguay flagParaguay▲ 32/3 3
4 Turkey flagTurkey▼ 02/3 0
Group E
#TeamNowPred
1 Germany flagGermany 62/3 9
2 Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast▲ 32/3 6
3 Ecuador flagEcuador▼ 12/3 1
4 Curaçao flagCuraçao 12/3 1
Group F
#TeamNowPred
1 Netherlands flagNetherlands 42/3 7
2 Japan flagJapan▲ 42/3 7
3 Sweden flagSweden 32/3 3
4 Tunisia flagTunisia▼ 02/3 0
Group G
#TeamNowPred
1 Belgium flagBelgium▼ 11/3 7
2 Egypt flagEgypt 11/3 7
3 Iran flagIran▼ 11/3 1
4 New Zealand flagNew Zealand 11/3 1
Group H
#TeamNowPred
1 Spain flagSpain▼ 11/3 7
2 Uruguay flagUruguay▼ 11/3 4
3 Saudi Arabia flagSaudi Arabia 11/3 4
4 Cape Verde flagCape Verde 11/3 1
Group I
#TeamNowPred
1 France flagFrance 31/3 9
2 Norway flagNorway 31/3 6
3 Senegal flagSenegal 01/3 3
4 Iraq flagIraq 01/3 0
Group J
#TeamNowPred
1 Argentina flagArgentina 31/3 9
2 Austria flagAustria 31/3 6
3 Algeria flagAlgeria 01/3 3
4 Jordan flagJordan 01/3 0
Group K
#TeamNowPred
1 Portugal flagPortugal▼ 11/3 7
2 Colombia flagColombia 31/3 6
3 DR Congo flagDR Congo 11/3 4
4 Uzbekistan flagUzbekistan 01/3 0
Group L
#TeamNowPred
1 England flagEngland▲ 31/3 9
2 Croatia flagCroatia 01/3 6
3 Ghana flagGhana▲ 31/3 3
4 Panama flagPanama▼ 01/3 0

Honest scoreboard

Our Track Record

Predictions are locked before kick-off, then graded the moment the match ends. Here's how the model is really doing.

58%

Winner accuracy

21 of 36 results called correctly

🔥 1 correct in a row
5of 36exact scorelines nailed
20of 36within ±1 goal each side
36predictions graded
36locked & waiting

Result stream — newest first · hover to see what we predicted · tap for full analysis

🎯 Best calls

🙈 Toughest misses

📊 Confidence calibration

When we say X%, how often are we right?

40–45% 25%n=4
45–55% 40%n=5
55–65% 67%n=9
65–75% 73%n=11
75–85% 50%n=2
85+% 60%n=5

Live model ratings

Power Index

Each team's strength rating, seeded pre-tournament and updated by every real result. Arrows show who's beating their expected points.

🧠 Self-tuning model RPS 0.158vs 0.163 baseline · lower = better

Recalibrated on 36 results — its forecast score beat the baseline by 3%, so it now uses tuned settings (goals ×0.89 · home 80 Elo · spread 0.003). It has learned this tournament is running lower-scoring than a typical international match.

1 Argentina flag Argentina 2100 · +0.2
2 France flag France 2074 ▲ +0.5
3 Spain flag Spain 2036 ▼ -1.8
4 England flag England 2034 ▲ +1.1
5 Brazil flag Brazil 2016 ▼ -1
6 Netherlands flag Netherlands 1998 ▼ -0.4
7 Germany flag Germany 1982 ▲ +0.9
8 Portugal flag Portugal 1979 ▼ -1.7
9 Belgium flag Belgium 1924 ▼ -1.3
10 Colombia flag Colombia 1901 ▲ +0.6
11 Morocco flag Morocco 1889 ▲ +1.4
12 Uruguay flag Uruguay 1887 ▼ -1.5
13 Croatia flag Croatia 1881 ▼ -0.8
14 Japan flag Japan 1866 ▲ +1.1
15 USA flag USA 1843 ▲ +1.7
16 Switzerland flag Switzerland 1836 · +0.1

Phuket Rentals

Watch it all from Phuket

Private-pool condos and suites across Phuket — your perfect base for a tournament-long stay. Managed directly by the owners.

View all stays →
Cape Panwa · sleeps 4

Veranda Sea View Suite

Flagship two-bedroom suite with private infinity pool and 270° Andaman panorama at the Veranda Resort on Cape Panwa — full resort amenities below.

View stay →
Kathu · sleeps 3

Dcondo Creek · 1BR with 100m pool

100-metre swimming pool runs the length of the development — one of the longest pools in Kathu. Bedroom plus a sofa bed in the living area — sleeps 3.

View stay →
Kathu · sleeps 4

Dcondo Reef · 2BR with 35m pool & Fit 360 gym

Two-bedroom layout in the same brand-new (2024) block as the 1BR — same 35-metre pool, same Fit 360 gym, room for four.

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Wichit · sleeps 2

THE BASE Bukit · 1BR with jacuzzi

Completed Sep 2025. Kids pool, jacuzzi, EV charger, and a free shuttle service to Central Phuket. The newest property in the portfolio.

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Wichit · sleeps 3

THE BASE Rise · 2BR with resort pool

A true two-bedroom — the second is a single room — so it sleeps three, with the same resort pool and Fit 360 gym as the 1BR.

View stay →
Kathu · sleeps 2

Dcondo Reef · 1BR with 35m pool & Fit 360 gym

Brand-new (2024). 35-metre swimming pool, Fit 360 gym, and 5 minutes to Phuket Town.

View stay →
Wichit · sleeps 2

THE BASE Rise · 1BR with resort pool

Resort-style pool with sunbeam patterns on the deck, Fit 360 gym, and a co-working lounge.

View stay →
Wichit · sleeps 2

THE BASE Central · 1BR Studio

Short walk to Central Phuket. Pool, gym, and co-working in a quiet residential pocket.

View stay →

How the predictions work

01

Elo strength model

Every nation carries a strength rating seeded from pre-tournament form. After each real result the ratings update — beating a stronger side moves the needle more.

02

Poisson scorelines

The rating gap becomes an expected-goals figure for each side; the most likely exact scoreline and the win / draw / win probabilities come straight from the maths.

03

AI match analysis

Each game gets a written read — what to expect and why, or a post-match verdict with who's beating expectations — grounded only in real match data.

04

Locked, then graded

Predictions are committed before kick-off and never edited. Already-played games at launch are marked backtested; the board re-runs automatically after every match.

Data: openfootball (public domain) · For entertainment only · live data