Every match of the 2026 World Cup , predicted.

Group A Matchday 1 backtested

Czech Republic to win

Czech Republic +20 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3

2–1full time ✗ missed

Group B Matchday 2 backtested

Canada +10 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9

Group D Matchday 2 backtested

USA +80 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.7

4–1full time ✓ winner called

Group B Matchday 3 backtested

Switzerland to win

Switzerland +140 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.8

Group C Matchday 3 backtested

Brazil +155 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.8

Group C Matchday 3 backtested

Scotland +165 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 2.0

Group D Matchday 3 backtested

Turkey +55 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.4

2–0full time ✗ missed

Group E Matchday 4 backtested

Germany +360 Elo Expected goals 3.5 – 0.4

7–1full time ✓ winner called

Group F Matchday 4 backtested

Netherlands to win

Netherlands +150 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.8

2–2full time ✗ missed

Group E Matchday 4 backtested

Ecuador +30 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3

1–0full time ✗ missed

Group F Matchday 4 backtested

Sweden +60 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0

5–1full time ✓ winner called

Group H Matchday 5 backtested

Spain +415 Elo Expected goals 4.2 – 0.3

Group G Matchday 5 backtested

Belgium +190 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7

Group H Matchday 5 backtested

Uruguay +230 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.4

Group G Matchday 5 backtested

Iran +160 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.7

2–2full time ✗ missed

Group I Matchday 6 backtested

France +240 Elo Expected goals 2.5 – 0.6

Group I Matchday 6 backtested

Norway +160 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 1.9

1–4full time ✓ winner called

Group J Matchday 6 backtested

Argentina +345 Elo Expected goals 3.4 – 0.4

3–0full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score

Group J Matchday 6 backtested

Austria +150 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.8

Group K Matchday 7 backtested

Portugal +295 Elo Expected goals 2.9 – 0.5

Group L Matchday 7 backtested

England +105 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9

4–2full time ✓ winner called

Group L Matchday 7 backtested

Ghana +40 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.1

1–0full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score

Group K Matchday 7 backtested

Colombia +205 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.2

Group A Matchday 8 backtested

Czech Republic to win

Czech Republic +55 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0

Group B Matchday 8 backtested

Switzerland to win

Switzerland +86 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9

4–1full time ✓ winner called

Group B Matchday 8 backtested

Canada +36 Elo Expected goals 1.7 – 0.8

6–0full time ✓ winner called

Group A Matchday 8 backtested

Mexico +45 Elo Expected goals 1.7 – 0.8

1–0full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score

Group D Matchday 9 backtested

USA +63 Elo Expected goals 1.8 – 0.8

Group C Matchday 9 backtested

Morocco +122 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.7

Group C Matchday 9 backtested

Brazil +448 Elo Expected goals 4.6 – 0.3

3–0full time ✓ winner called

Group D Matchday 9 backtested

Turkey +38 Elo Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1

0–1full time ✗ missed

Group F Matchday 10 backtested

Netherlands to win

Netherlands +181 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7

5–1full time ✓ winner called

Group E Matchday 10 backtested

Germany +191 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7

Group E Matchday 10 backtested

Ecuador +171 Elo Expected goals 2.0 – 0.7

Group F Matchday 10 backtested

Japan +179 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 2.1

0–4full time ✓ winner called

Group H Matchday 11 locked

Spain +353 Elo Expected goals 3.5 – 0.4

4–0full time ✓ winner called

Group G Matchday 11 locked

Belgium +173 Elo Expected goals 2.0 – 0.7

Group H Matchday 11 locked

Uruguay +228 Elo Expected goals 2.4 – 0.6

2–2full time ✗ missed

Group G Matchday 11 locked

Egypt +147 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.9

Group J Matchday 12 locked

Argentina +289 Elo Expected goals 2.9 – 0.5

2–0full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score

Group I Matchday 12 locked

France +456 Elo Expected goals 4.6 – 0.3

3–0full time ✓ winner called

Group I Matchday 12 locked

Norway +16 Elo Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1

3–2full time ✓ winner called

Group J Matchday 12 locked

Algeria +116 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.7

1–2full time ✓ winner called

Group K Matchday 13 locked

Portugal +315 Elo Expected goals 3.1 – 0.5

5–0full time ✓ winner called

Group L Matchday 13 locked

England +314 Elo Expected goals 3.1 – 0.5

Group L Matchday 13 locked

Croatia +241 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.5

0–1full time ✓ winner called

Group K Matchday 13 locked

Colombia +185 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7

1–0full time ✓ winner called

Group B Matchday 14 locked

Switzerland to win

Switzerland +84 Elo Expected goals 1.2 – 1.2

Group B Matchday 14 locked

Bosnia & Herzegovina to win

Bosnia & Herzegovina +40 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.1

Group C Matchday 14 locked

Brazil +278 Elo Expected goals 0.5 – 2.8

0–3full time ✓ winner called

Group C Matchday 14 locked

Morocco +332 Elo Expected goals 3.3 – 0.4

4–2full time ✓ winner called

Group A Matchday 14 locked

Mexico +91 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 2.0

0–3full time ✓ winner called

Group A Matchday 14 locked

South Korea to win

South Korea +64 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.5

1–0full time ✗ missed

Group E Matchday 15 locked

Ivory Coast to win

Ivory Coast +169 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 2.0

0–2full time ✓ winner called

Group E Matchday 15 locked

Germany +232 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.4

2–1full time ✗ missed

Group F Matchday 15 locked

Japan +93 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9

Group F Matchday 15 locked

Netherlands to win

Netherlands +355 Elo Expected goals 0.4 – 3.5

Group D Matchday 15 locked

USA +132 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.3

3–2full time ✗ missed

Group D Matchday 15 locked

Australia +16 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3

Group I Matchday 16 locked

France +251 Elo Expected goals 0.6 – 2.5

1–4full time ✓ winner called

Group I Matchday 16 locked

Senegal +189 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7

5–0full time ✓ winner called

Group H Matchday 16 locked

Saudi Arabia to win

Saudi Arabia +24 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3

Group H Matchday 16 locked

Spain +149 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.9

Group G Matchday 16 locked

Egypt +6 Elo Expected goals 1.2 – 1.2

Group G Matchday 16 locked

Belgium +314 Elo Expected goals 0.5 – 3.1

1–5full time ✓ winner called

Group L Matchday 17 locked

England +394 Elo Expected goals 0.4 – 3.9

0–2full time ✓ winner called

Group L Matchday 17 locked

Croatia +161 Elo Expected goals 1.9 – 0.7

Group K Matchday 17 locked

Portugal +79 Elo Expected goals 0.9 – 1.5

Group K Matchday 17 locked

DR Congo +51 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0

Group J Matchday 17 locked

Austria +75 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.5

3–3full time ✗ missed

Group J Matchday 17 locked

Argentina +480 Elo Expected goals 0.3 – 4.6

Canada +18 Elo Expected goals 1.3 – 1.4

Canada to advance

Brazil +169 Elo Expected goals 2.0 – 0.7

Brazil to advance

Germany +223 Elo Expected goals 2.3 – 0.6

Germany to advance

1–1pens 3–4 ✗ missed

Netherlands +108 Elo Expected goals 1.7 – 0.9

Netherlands to advance

1–1pens 2–3 ✗ missed

Norway +41 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.4

Norway to advance

1–2full time ✓ winner called

France +316 Elo Expected goals 3.1 – 0.5

3–0full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score

Mexico +59 Elo Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0

Mexico to advance

England +292 Elo Expected goals 2.9 – 0.5

England to advance

Belgium +115 Elo Expected goals 1.7 – 0.8

Belgium to advance

3–2a.e.t. ✓ winner called

USA +87 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9

Spain +262 Elo Expected goals 2.6 – 0.5

3–0full time ✓ winner called

Portugal +84 Elo Expected goals 1.5 – 0.9

Portugal to advance

Switzerland +105 Elo Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9

Switzerland to advance

Egypt +38 Elo Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3

1–1pens 2–4 ✓ winner called

Argentina +442 Elo Expected goals 4.5 – 0.3

3–2a.e.t. ✓ winner called

Colombia +195 Elo Expected goals 2.2 – 0.7

Colombia to advance

1–0full time ✓ winner called

Morocco +154 Elo Expected goals 0.8 – 1.9

Morocco to advance

0–3full time ✓ winner called

France +370 Elo Expected goals 0.4 – 3.6

0–1full time ✓ winner called

Brazil +194 Elo Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7

Brazil to advance

1–2full time ✗ missed

England +159 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 1.9

England to advance

2–3full time ✓ winner called

Spain +68 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.5

Belgium +84 Elo Expected goals 0.9 – 1.5

Belgium to advance

1–4full time ✓ winner called

Argentina +321 Elo Expected goals 3.1 – 0.5

3–2full time ✓ winner called

Colombia +46 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.4

Colombia to advance

0–0pens 4–3 ✗ missed

France +183 Elo Expected goals 2.7 – 0.7

2–0full time ✓ winner called ★ exact score

Spain +143 Elo Expected goals 2.3 – 0.8

England +163 Elo Expected goals 0.7 – 2.0

England to advance

1–2a.e.t. ✓ winner called

Argentina +215 Elo Expected goals 2.3 – 0.6

3–1a.e.t. ✓ winner called

Semi-final Semi-final locked

France +24 Elo Expected goals 1.5 – 1.2

0–2full time ✗ missed

Semi-final Semi-final locked

Argentina +54 Elo Expected goals 1.0 – 1.4

1–2full time ✓ winner called

Match for third place Match for third place locked

France +77 Elo Expected goals 1.5 – 1.0

4–6full time ✗ missed

Spain +33 Elo Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1

1–0a.e.t. ✓ winner called

Group stage

Group Tables — predicted vs actual

Each group's projected final points (Pred) beside the points banked so far (Now). The top two — our predicted qualifiers — are highlighted; arrows flag who's over- or under-performing the model.

Group A

#TeamNowPred

Mexico▲ 93/3 9

South Africa 43/3 4

South Korea 33/3 3

Czech Republic▼ 13/3 1

Group B

#TeamNowPred

Switzerland▲ 73/3 7

Canada 43/3 4

Bosnia & Herzegovina 43/3 4

Qatar▼ 13/3 1

Group C

#TeamNowPred

Brazil▼ 73/3 7

Morocco▲ 73/3 7

Scotland 33/3 3

Haiti 03/3 0

Group D

#TeamNowPred

USA 63/3 6

Australia 43/3 4

Paraguay▲ 43/3 4

Turkey 33/3 3

Group E

#TeamNowPred

Germany▼ 63/3 6

Ivory Coast 63/3 6

Ecuador▼ 43/3 4

Curaçao 13/3 1

Group F

#TeamNowPred

Netherlands▼ 73/3 7

Japan 53/3 5

Sweden 43/3 4

Tunisia▼ 03/3 0

Group G

#TeamNowPred

Belgium▼ 53/3 5

Egypt 53/3 5

Iran▼ 33/3 3

New Zealand 13/3 1

Group H

#TeamNowPred

Spain▲ 73/3 7

Cape Verde▲ 33/3 3

Uruguay▼ 23/3 2

Saudi Arabia 23/3 2

Group I

#TeamNowPred

France▼ 93/3 9

Norway▲ 63/3 6

Senegal 33/3 3

Iraq▼ 03/3 0

Group J

#TeamNowPred

Argentina▼ 93/3 9

Austria 43/3 4

Algeria 43/3 4

Jordan▼ 03/3 0

Group K

#TeamNowPred

Colombia▲ 73/3 7

Portugal▼ 53/3 5

DR Congo▲ 43/3 4

Uzbekistan▼ 03/3 0

Group L

#TeamNowPred

England 73/3 7

Croatia 63/3 6

Ghana▲ 43/3 4

Panama▼ 03/3 0

Honest scoreboard

Our Track Record

Predictions are locked before kick-off, then graded the moment the match ends. Here's how the model is really doing.

68%

Winner accuracy

71 of 104 results called correctly

🔥 1 correct in a row

11of 104exact scorelines nailed

63of 104within ±1 goal each side

104predictions graded

0locked & waiting

Result stream — newest first · green called right · red missed · ★ exact · tap for analysis

0–0

4–6

1–2

0–2

1–1

1–1

2–1

2–0

0–0

3–2

1–4

0–1

2–3

1–2

0–1

0–3

1–0

1–1

1–1

2–0

2–1

3–0

2–0

2–2

2–1

2–0

3–0

1–2

1–1

1–1

2–1

0–1

1–3

3–3

3–1

0–0

2–1

0–2

1–5

1–1

0–1

0–0

5–0

1–4

0–0

3–2

1–3

1–1

2–1

0–2

1–0

0–3

4–2

0–3

3–1

2–1

1–0

0–1

0–0

5–0

1–2

3–2

3–0

2–0

1–3

2–2

0–0

4–0

0–4

0–0

2–1

5–1

0–1

3–0

0–1

2–0

1–0

6–0

4–1

1–1

1–3

1–0

4–2

1–1

3–1

3–0

1–4

3–1

2–2

1–1

1–1

0–0

5–1

1–0

2–2

7–1

2–0

0–1

1–1

1–1

4–1

1–1

2–1

2–0

🎯 Best calls

🙈 Toughest misses

📊 Confidence calibration

When we say X%, how often are we right?

40–45% 50%n=16

45–55% 53%n=17

55–65% 75%n=16

65–75% 76%n=25

75–85% 60%n=10

85+% 85%n=20

Live model ratings

Power Index

Each team's strength rating, seeded pre-tournament and updated by every real result. Arrows show who's beating their expected points.

🧠 Self-tuning model RPS 0.156vs 0.158 baseline · lower = better

Recalibrated on 104 results — its forecast score beat the baseline by 2%, so it now uses tuned settings (goals ×0.89 · home 80 Elo · spread 0.003). It has learned this tournament is running lower-scoring than a typical international match.

Spain 2138 ▲ +2.9

Argentina 2109 ▼ -1

England 2056 ▲ +0.5

France 2051 ▼ -1.2

Brazil 2008 ▼ -2.1

Netherlands 1999 ▼ -1.1

Portugal 1986 ▼ -2

Germany 1934 ▼ -3

Belgium 1934 ▼ -2.5

Colombia 1926 ▲ +1.4

Morocco 1910 ▲ +2.3

Switzerland 1898 ▲ +3.3

Norway 1891 ▲ +6.4

Croatia 1886 ▼ -0.5

Uruguay 1862 ▼ -3.6

Mexico 1860 ▲ +3.3

Phuket Rentals

Watch it all from Phuket

Private-pool condos and suites across Phuket — your perfect base for a tournament-long stay. Managed directly by the owners.

View all stays →

Cape Panwa · sleeps 4

Veranda Sea View Suite

Flagship two-bedroom suite with private infinity pool and 270° Andaman panorama at the Veranda Resort on Cape Panwa — full resort amenities below.

Kathu · sleeps 3

Dcondo Creek · 1BR with 100m pool

100-metre swimming pool runs the length of the development — one of the longest pools in Kathu. Bedroom plus a sofa bed in the living area — sleeps 3.

Kathu · sleeps 4

Dcondo Reef · 2BR with 35m pool & Fit 360 gym

Two-bedroom layout in the same brand-new (2024) block as the 1BR — same 35-metre pool, same Fit 360 gym, room for four.

Wichit · sleeps 2

THE BASE Bukit · 1BR with jacuzzi

Completed Sep 2025. Kids pool, jacuzzi, EV charger, and a free shuttle service to Central Phuket. The newest property in the portfolio.

Wichit · sleeps 3

THE BASE Rise · 2BR with resort pool

A true two-bedroom — the second is a single room — so it sleeps three, with the same resort pool and Fit 360 gym as the 1BR.

Kathu · sleeps 2

Dcondo Reef · 1BR with 35m pool & Fit 360 gym

Brand-new (2024). 35-metre swimming pool, Fit 360 gym, and 5 minutes to Phuket Town.

Wichit · sleeps 2

THE BASE Rise · 1BR with resort pool

Resort-style pool with sunbeam patterns on the deck, Fit 360 gym, and a co-working lounge.

Wichit · sleeps 2

THE BASE Central · 1BR Studio

Short walk to Central Phuket. Pool, gym, and co-working in a quiet residential pocket.