Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia
Uzbekistan vs Colombia 
Group K · Matchday 7 · 2026-06-17 · Mexico City
1–3final score
0–2we predicted ✓
✨ AI analysisbacktested
Colombia cruise past Uzbekistan in Mexico City
Colombia dominated Group K Matchday 7, defeating Uzbekistan 3-1 in Mexico City to justify heavy pre-match favouritism. Our 0-2 prediction nailed the winner and margin, though the actual scoreline proved slightly higher-scoring than modelled.
Uzbekistan underperformed expectations, earning zero points versus 0.5 projected despite Abbosbek Fayzullaev's 60th-minute strike. Colombia overdelivered, securing all three points while exceeding their 2.4 expected points—a +0.6 delta driven by clinical finishing from Muñoz, Díaz, and Campaz.
The model's 73% confidence proved justified. Colombia's +205 Elo advantage proved decisive on the day.
Uzbekistan
▼ under-performing
0 actual vs 0.5 expected points (−0.5 delta)
Colombia
▲ over-performing
3 actual vs 2.4 expected points (+0.6 delta)
Confidence factors
📈Colombia +205 Elo
⚽Expected goals 0.6 – 2.2
🔥Form — vs —
⏱️High-scoring lean (2.9 xG)