Portugal 1–1 DR Congo
Portugal vs DR Congo 
Congo stun Portugal in shock Group K draw
Portugal dominated early through João Neves' sixth-minute opener but couldn't build on their advantage. DR Congo hit back spectacularly in first-half stoppage time via Yoane Wissa to secure an unlikely 1-1 draw in Houston. Our prediction of a comfortable 2-0 Portugal win proved wildly optimistic.
The model expected Portugal to generate 2.9 xG and DR Congo just 0.5, yet both sides finished level. Portugal's 86% win probability evaporated entirely as they failed to convert their territorial dominance into a second goal. This was a shocking upset by the numbers, with our 86% confidence proving severely misplaced.
Portugal underperformed expectations by 1.7 points, while DR Congo overperformed by 0.8—a massive swing. The predicted 2-0 scoreline didn't account for DR Congo's clinical finishing and Portugal's wasteful execution.
Portugal
▼ under-performing
-1.7 points vs expected 2.7
DR Congo
▲ over-performing
+0.8 points vs expected 0.2