USA 2–0 Australia

USA defeated Australia 2-0 in Seattle, with Cameron Burgess and Alex Freeman scoring in the first half. Our prediction of a 1-0 USA win proved correct on the result, though the hosts were more clinical than expected.

USA is performing OVER expectations, earning 6 points versus 4.3 predicted across their two matches. Australia is also performing OVER expectations, accumulating 3 points versus 1.8 predicted, defying their underdog status.

The USA's Elo advantage and home turf proved decisive, while Australia's resilience in their Group D campaign shows they're punching above the model's preseason assessment.