Australia 2–0 Turkey

Australia delivered a stunning 2-0 victory over Turkey in Group D's decider, with Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe on the scoresheet. Our model predicted a narrow Turkey win (46% probability), making this a decisive miss on both scoreline and result.

Australia massively overperformed expectations, earning 3 points against a projected 1.8 — a +1.2 delta that swings Group D wide open. Turkey's collapse is equally dramatic: they harvested zero points versus an expected 3.2, a devastating -3.2 swing that leaves their knockout hopes hanging by a thread.

The Socceroos' clinical finishing and Turkey's toothless display inverted every pre-match indicator, including the Elo advantage and expected goals model (1.0–1.4). This result underscores tournament volatility at the final hurdle.