Australia 2–0 Turkey
Australia vs Turkey 
Group D · Matchday 3 · 2026-06-13 · Vancouver
2–0final score
0–1we predicted ✗
📐 model analysisbacktested
Australia defy the model
Australia beat Turkey 2–0 in Group D. Scorers: Nestory Irankunda (27'), Connor Metcalfe (75').
Our model leaned Turkey (46%) with a 0–1 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — Australia: 5 pts from 4, right in line with the 4.4 expected. Turkey: 3 pts from 3, right in line with the 3.6 expected.
Australia
· as expected
5 pts from 4, right in line with the 4.4 expected.
Turkey
· as expected
3 pts from 3, right in line with the 3.6 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Turkey +55 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.0 – 1.4
🔥Form — vs —
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.4 xG)