Turkey 0–1 Paraguay
Turkey vs Paraguay 
Group D · Matchday 9 · 2026-06-19 · San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
0–1final score
1–0we predicted ✗
📐 model analysisbacktested
Paraguay defy the model
Paraguay beat Turkey 1–0 in Group D. Scorers: Matías Galarza (2').
Our model leaned Turkey (43%) with a 1–0 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — Turkey: 3 pts from 3, right in line with the 3.6 expected. Paraguay: 5 pts from 5 — about 1.4 above the 3.6 our model expected.
Turkey
· as expected
3 pts from 3, right in line with the 3.6 expected.
Paraguay
▲ over-performing
5 pts from 5 — about 1.4 above the 3.6 our model expected.
Confidence factors
📈Turkey +38 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1
🔥Form L vs L
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.4 xG)