Turkey 0–1 Paraguay

Paraguay delivered a stunning 1-0 victory over Turkey on Matchday 9, with Matías Galarza striking in the second minute. Our model heavily favored Turkey (43% win probability) based on their +38 Elo advantage and superior expected goals (1.3 vs 1.1), making this a decisive miss.

Turkey's zero-point haul represents a catastrophic 3.2-point underperformance against expectations. Paraguay, conversely, banked 3 points when just 1.8 were forecast—a 1.2-point outperformance that signals genuine upset capability despite both sides entering on poor form.

With 43% model confidence, this result exposes the limits of rating-based prediction when momentum and execution diverge. Paraguay's clinical early finish proved decisive in what was shaping as a balanced, low-scoring affair.