Turkey 3–2 USA
Turkey vs USA 
Group D · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25 · Los Angeles (Inglewood)
3–2final score
0–2we predicted ✗
📐 model analysislocked
Turkey defy the model
Turkey beat USA 3–2 in Group D. Scorers: Arda Güler (10'), Baris Alper Yilmaz (31'), Kaan Ayhan (90+8'); Auston Trusty (3'), Sebastian Berhalter (49').
Our model leaned USA (74%) with a 0–2 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — Turkey: 3 pts from 3, right in line with the 3.6 expected. USA: 6 pts from 3, right in line with the 6.7 expected.
Turkey
· as expected
3 pts from 3, right in line with the 3.6 expected.
USA
· as expected
6 pts from 3, right in line with the 6.7 expected.
Confidence factors
📈USA +132 Elo
⚽Expected goals 0.6 – 2.3
🔥Form LL vs WW
🏟️USA playing at home
⏱️High-scoring lean (2.9 xG)