Turkey vs USA prediction

Our model backs USA to dominate this Group D clash with a 74% win probability and a predicted 2-0 scoreline. The 132 Elo advantage, combined with home turf in Los Angeles, gives the Americans a decisive edge—expected goals tell the story at 2.3 to Turkey's 0.6.

Form divergence is stark: USA arrive on a two-game winning streak while Turkey have lost their last two. The model's 74% confidence is anchored in USA's superior xG output (2.9 overall) and Turkey's inability to generate attacking threat.

USA have exceeded expectations so far (+1.7 points above model projection), while Turkey are tracking well below par (-3.2 points). This gap widens further on home soil.