USA 4–1 Paraguay
USA vs Paraguay 
Group D · Matchday 2 · 2026-06-12 · Los Angeles (Inglewood)
4–1final score
1–0we predicted ✓
📐 model analysisbacktested
USA deliver as predicted
USA beat Paraguay 4–1 in Group D. Scorers: Damian Bobadilla (7'), Folarin Balogun (31'), Folarin Balogun (45+5'), Giovanni Reyna (90+8'); Mauricio (73').
Our model backed USA at 66% and predicted 1–0 — the right call on the result.
Tournament so far — USA: 9 pts from 5, right in line with the 9.4 expected. Paraguay: 5 pts from 5 — about 1.4 above the 3.6 our model expected.
USA
· as expected
9 pts from 5, right in line with the 9.4 expected.
Paraguay
▲ over-performing
5 pts from 5 — about 1.4 above the 3.6 our model expected.
Confidence factors
📈USA +80 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.9 – 0.7
🔥Form — vs —
🏟️USA playing at home
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.7 xG)