USA 4–1 Paraguay

USA dominated Paraguay 4-1 in Los Angeles, delivering a clinical performance that far exceeded our model's 1-0 prediction. We nailed the winner but badly underestimated the margin: Balogun bagged a brace, Bobadilla and Reyna added finishes, while Paraguay grabbed a consolation through Mauricio.

The Americans are running hot. They've banked 6 points from 2 matches against an expected 4.3, outperforming projections by 1.7 points—a significant overperformance driven by ruthless finishing. Paraguay, meanwhile, are also beating the odds at 3 points versus 1.8 expected, suggesting they're tougher than their Elo rating implies.

USA's home advantage and Elo edge (+80) proved decisive, but the gulf in execution was wider than xG suggested. Paraguay competed but couldn't convert chances into results.