Portugal 0–1 Spain
Portugal vs Spain 
R16 · Round of 16 · 2026-07-06 · Dallas (Arlington)
0–1final score
0–1we predicted ✓
📐 model analysislocked
Called to the goal: Portugal 0–1 Spain
Spain beat Portugal 1–0 in Round of 16. Scorers: Mikel Merino (90+1').
Our model backed Spain at 49% and predicted 0–1 — an exact-score hit.
Tournament so far — Portugal: just 8 pts from 5, roughly 2 below the 10 expected. Spain: 13 pts from 5 — about 1 above the 12 our model expected.
Portugal
▼ under-performing
just 8 pts from 5, roughly 2 below the 10 expected.
Spain
▲ over-performing
13 pts from 5 — about 1 above the 12 our model expected.
Confidence factors
📈Spain +68 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.0 – 1.5
🔥Form DWDW vs DWWW
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.5 xG)