Iran 2–2 New Zealand
Iran vs New Zealand 
Group G · Matchday 5 · 2026-06-15 · Los Angeles (Inglewood)
2–2final score
1–0we predicted ✗
✨ AI analysisbacktested
Iran stunned as New Zealand stages epic comeback
Iran and New Zealand played out a thrilling 2-2 draw in Los Angeles, completely upending our 1-0 Iran prediction. Elijah Just's double (7', 54') sandwiched Iran's goals from Rezaeian (32') and Mohebbi (64'), delivering a dramatic group-stage upset that neither team was expected to produce.
Our model had Iran winning with 66% confidence, backed by a +160 Elo advantage and superior expected goals (1.9-0.7). The actual result left both sides with a point apiece—far from the dominant Iran performance anticipated.
Iran underperformed expectations, dropping 1.2 points below their 2.2-point forecast. New Zealand massively overdelivered, earning 0.4 points above their 0.6-point projection in a stunning display of resilience.
Iran
▼ under-performing
Expected 2.2pts, earned 1pt (-1.2)
New Zealand
▲ over-performing
Expected 0.6pts, earned 1pt (+0.4)
Confidence factors
📈Iran +160 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.9 – 0.7
🔥Form — vs —
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.7 xG)