New Zealand vs Belgium prediction

Belgium's dominance in Elo rating (+314) and expected goals output (3.1 vs 0.5) gives them an 88% win probability in Vancouver. Our model expects a comfortable 3-0 victory with high confidence (88%), underpinned by a massive xG gap and Belgium's attacking superiority.

New Zealand has overperformed early expectations, picking up 1 point from 1 match when 0.6 was projected—a sign of pragmatic defending. Belgium, however, undershot their xG promise in their opener, harvesting just 1 point from a 2.3 expected haul.

Both sides arrive on the back of draws, but Belgium's elite rating and firepower should prove decisive. A Belgium win is the base case here.