Belgium 1–1 Egypt

Belgium and Egypt played to a 1-1 draw in Seattle, a stunning result that shattered our 71% confidence prediction of a 2-0 Belgian victory. Emam Ashour gave Egypt an early 19th-minute lead before Mohamed Hany equalized for Belgium in the 66th, but the Red Devils couldn't find a winner despite their Elo advantage and expected goals edge.

Our model projected Belgium would rack up 2.1 expected goals versus Egypt's 0.7, yet the match unfolded as a cagey affair that neither side could finish. The high-scoring lean we flagged proved entirely wrong, with both teams failing to convert their chances at the expected rate.

Belgium underperformed massively, earning just 1 point against an expected 2.3. Egypt, conversely, delivered a massive upset—harvesting 1 point when 0.5 was anticipated, proving far tougher than our model suggested.