New Zealand 1–3 Egypt

Egypt breezed past New Zealand 3-1 in Vancouver, with goals from Zico, Salah, and Trézéguet offsetting an early Surman strike. We predicted an Egypt win at 63% confidence and nailed the outcome, though the 0-1 scoreline proved too conservative.

Egypt's dominance far exceeded the xG script (1.9 expected). They banked 4 points over two matches versus 2.6 projected—a +1.4 delta that signals serious form above model estimates. New Zealand underperformed marginally at 1 point actual versus 1.3 expected, slipping -0.3 in the performance gap.

The Pharaohs' clinical finishing and New Zealand's blunt attack validated the underlying Elo edge (+147) and quality gap, even if the margin of victory outpaced expectations.