Ecuador 0–0 Curaçao
Ecuador vs Curaçao 
Group E · Matchday 10 · 2026-06-20 · Kansas City
0–0final score
2–0we predicted ✗
✨ AI analysisbacktested
Stalemate stuns Ecuador; Curaçao overdelivers
Ecuador and Curaçao played out a goalless draw in Kansas City, defying our 2-0 Ecuador prediction. Despite a 171 Elo advantage and 2.0 expected goals, Ecuador failed to convert and left points on the table.
Our model backed Ecuador at 68% win probability with confidence of 68%, but both sides neutralized each other in a tight contest. The 0-0 result was the least likely outcome we forecast, making this a clear miss.
Ecuador's 1-point haul vs. 3.7 expected represents significant underperformance. Curaçao's draw was a pleasant surprise, earning 0.3 more points than anticipated.
Ecuador
▼ under-performing
-2.7 point gap; failed to convert dominance into goals
Curaçao
▲ over-performing
+0.3 point surplus; solid defensive display
Confidence factors
📈Ecuador +171 Elo
⚽Expected goals 2.0 – 0.7
🔥Form L vs L
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.7 xG)