Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast

Germany claimed a 2-1 victory over Ivory Coast in Toronto, with Deniz Undav bagging both goals either side of Franck Kessié's 30th-minute equaliser. Our prediction of a 2-0 German win proved correct on the result, though the Ivorians' late consolation denied us the exact scoreline.

The Germans delivered as expected, outscoring their xG prediction with 2 goals from 2.1 expected chances. Ivory Coast, however, punched well above their weight—converting their limited opportunities while holding their hosts for 68 minutes before succumbing to Undav's late double.

Germany are performing OVER expectations with +0.9 expected points gained. Ivory Coast are performing OVER expectations with +1.3 expected points gained, proving far more resilient than the 71% confidence in our model suggested.