Ecuador 2–1 Germany
Ecuador vs Germany 
Group E · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25 · New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
2–1final score
0–2we predicted ✗
📐 model analysislocked
Ecuador defy the model
Ecuador beat Germany 2–1 in Group E. Scorers: Nilson Angulo (9'), Gonzalo Plata (77'); Leroy Sané (2').
Our model leaned Germany (77%) with a 0–2 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — Ecuador: 4 pts from 3, right in line with the 4.1 expected. Germany: just 6 pts from 3, roughly 1.6 below the 7.6 expected.
Ecuador
· as expected
4 pts from 3, right in line with the 4.1 expected.
Germany
▼ under-performing
just 6 pts from 3, roughly 1.6 below the 7.6 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Germany +232 Elo
⚽Expected goals 0.6 – 2.4
🔥Form LD vs WW
⏱️High-scoring lean (3.0 xG)