Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador 
Group E · Matchday 4 · 2026-06-14 · Philadelphia
1–0final score
0–1we predicted ✗
📐 model analysisbacktested
Ivory Coast defy the model
Ivory Coast beat Ecuador 1–0 in Group E. Scorers: Amad Diallo (90').
Our model leaned Ecuador (42%) with a 0–1 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — Ivory Coast: 6 pts from 4, right in line with the 5.1 expected. Ecuador: just 4 pts from 4, roughly 1.2 below the 5.2 expected.
Ivory Coast
· as expected
6 pts from 4, right in line with the 5.1 expected.
Ecuador
▼ under-performing
just 4 pts from 4, roughly 1.2 below the 5.2 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Ecuador +30 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.1 – 1.3
🔥Form — vs —
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.4 xG)