Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador

Ivory Coast snatched a dramatic 1-0 victory over Ecuador in Philadelphia, with Amad Diallo's 90th-minute strike settling a tight Group E contest. Our model predicted a 0-1 Ecuador win with 42% confidence—a prediction that fell short despite correctly identifying the match would be close and low-scoring.

The Ivorians are performing WELL OVER expectations, banking 3 points against a pre-match xG deficit (1.1 vs 1.3) and crushing their expected output of 1.7 points across two matches. Ecuador, conversely, is performing MUCH WORSE than anticipated, collecting just 1 point when their Elo edge and expected goals suggested 3.7 points in the bag.

The low 42% confidence proved justified—this was a balanced affair that swung on a moment of late brilliance rather than sustained dominance.