Netherlands 5–1 Sweden

Netherlands absolutely dismantled Sweden with a 5-1 rout in Houston. Brobbey bagged a brace early, then Gakpo added two after the break as the Dutch turned a predicted 2-0 win into a clinical masterclass. Summerville sealed the demolition late while Elanga's 59th-minute effort proved mere consolation.

Our prediction nailed the winner but badly underestimated the margin—we called 2-0, they delivered 5-1. The xG model (2.1-0.7) captured the dominance correctly, yet Netherlands converted with ruthless efficiency far beyond expectations. This wasn't a fluke; it was sustained destruction across both halves.

Netherlands underperformed marginally on expected points (-0.4), while Sweden overdelivered slightly (+0.8). The Swedes cashed in rare chances despite being outclassed, keeping their point tally respectable given the gulf in class on the day.