Tunisia 0–4 Japan

Japan steamrolled Tunisia 4-0 in Monterrey, delivering a dominant performance that exceeded our pre-match forecast. We predicted a 0-2 win for Japan with 69% confidence—correct on the winner, but the margin proved far more emphatic than modeled.

Japan's clinical finishing was the difference. Kamada struck in the 4th minute, Ueda doubled the lead by the 31st, and the Samurai Blue added two more through Ito (69') and Ueda again (83') to complete a shutout. Tunisia managed zero shots on target and never threatened Japan's backline.

Japan outperformed expectations by 1.1 points, while Tunisia underperformed by 1.6—a stark gap that reflects Japan's superior execution and Tunisia's complete lack of attacking penetration.