Netherlands 2–2 Japan

Netherlands and Japan played out a thrilling 2-2 draw in Dallas, defying our 1-0 prediction for the Dutch. Van Dijk and Summerville put Netherlands ahead, but Nakamura and a late Kamada equalizer secured Japan an impressive point.

Our model heavily favored Netherlands (64% win probability, 1.9 xG vs 0.8), but Japan's second-half resilience proved decisive. The match delivered more goals than expected, with both sides combining for 2.6 xG—a sign of competitive balance that our forecast underestimated.

Netherlands underperformed slightly, earning 4 points vs 4.4 expected across their matches. Japan massively overdelivered, posting 4 points versus just 2.9 expected—a +1.1 delta that signals genuine quality overcoming pre-tournament doubts.