Netherlands 2–2 Japan
Netherlands vs Japan 
Group F · Matchday 4 · 2026-06-14 · Dallas (Arlington)
2–2final score
1–0we predicted ✗
📐 model analysisbacktested
Honours even in Group F
Netherlands and Japan drew 2–2 in Group F. Scorers: Virgil van Dijk (51'), Crysencio Summerville (64'); Keito Nakamura (57'), Daichi Kamada (88').
Our model leaned Netherlands (64%) with a 1–0 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — Netherlands: just 8 pts from 4, roughly 1.1 below the 9.1 expected. Japan: 5 pts from 4, right in line with the 5.3 expected.
Netherlands
▼ under-performing
just 8 pts from 4, roughly 1.1 below the 9.1 expected.
Japan
· as expected
5 pts from 4, right in line with the 5.3 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Netherlands +150 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.9 – 0.8
🔥Form — vs —
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.6 xG)