Sweden 5–1 Tunisia

Sweden's 5-1 demolition of Tunisia was a stunning departure from our 1-0 prediction. We nailed the winner but massively underestimated the Swedes' attacking firepower, with Yasin Ayari bagging a brace and Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres, and Mattias Svanberg all adding goals.

Sweden performed significantly BETTER than expected, accumulating 0.8 more points than our model predicted (3 actual vs 2.2 expected). Tunisia, conversely, imploded—gathering 1.6 fewer points than anticipated after Omar Rekik's 43rd-minute equalizer couldn't spark a comeback.

Our directional call was correct but the magnitude was wildly off. This scoreline suggests Sweden's Elo advantage and xG edge translated into elite clinical finishing.