Sweden 5–1 Tunisia
Sweden vs Tunisia 
Group F · Matchday 4 · 2026-06-14 · Monterrey (Guadalupe)
5–1final score
1–0we predicted ✓
📐 model analysisbacktested
Sweden deliver as predicted
Sweden beat Tunisia 5–1 in Group F. Scorers: Yasin Ayari (7'), Yasin Ayari (90+6'), Alexander Isak (30'), Viktor Gyökeres (59'), Mattias Svanberg (84'); Omar Rekik (43').
Our model backed Sweden at 47% and predicted 1–0 — the right call on the result.
Tournament so far — Sweden: 4 pts from 4, right in line with the 3.3 expected. Tunisia: just 0 pts from 3, roughly 1.7 below the 1.7 expected.
Sweden
· as expected
4 pts from 4, right in line with the 3.3 expected.
Tunisia
▼ under-performing
just 0 pts from 3, roughly 1.7 below the 1.7 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Sweden +60 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0
🔥Form — vs —
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.4 xG)