Czech Republic 1–1 South Africa

Czech Republic and South Africa played to a 1-1 draw in Atlanta, with Michal Sadílek giving the Czechs an early 6th-minute lead before Teboho Mokoena equalized in the 83rd. Our prediction of a Czech victory fell short, as we called for a 1-0 win with 46% confidence.

The Czechs underperformed significantly despite their +55 Elo advantage and superior expected goals (1.4 to 1.0). They've now earned just 1 point from an expected 3.1 across their matches, a troubling -2.1 delta that suggests execution issues in key moments.

South Africa also disappointed relative to their 1.7 expected points, though their shortfall (-0.7) was less severe. The late leveler kept them competitive in what shaped up as a balanced contest.