South Korea 2–1 Czech Republic

South Korea flipped the script in Guadalajara, defeating Czech Republic 2-1 despite entering as 40% underdogs. Hwang In-Beom and Oh Hyeon-Gyu scored in the second half to overturn Ladislav Krejcí's 59th-minute opener. Our model predicted a 0-1 Czech victory—a clean miss on both the result and scoreline.

The Koreans dramatically exceeded expectations, banking 3 points when the model allocated just 2. Czech Republic, favored by our 40% win probability, fell short with only 1 point, leaving them 2.1 points adrift of projections. This was always a tight call—our confidence sat at just 40%—but South Korea's second-half surge proved decisive.

The expected goals (1.1–1.3) suggested a cagey affair, yet the match delivered more clinical finishing and drama than anticipated. Group A just got wide open.