Haiti 0–1 Scotland
Haiti vs Scotland 
Scotland edges Haiti as prediction hits bullseye
Scotland's 1-0 victory over Haiti delivered exactly what we forecasted: a comfortable win with John McGinn's 28th-minute strike proving decisive. Our model nailed both the scoreline and the 66% confidence level, capitalizing on Scotland's +165 Elo advantage and superior expected-goals profile (2.0 vs 0.7).
Haiti underperformed their expected-points tally, earning zero actual points against a 0.6-point projection across their two matches. Scotland delivered precisely to expectation, banking their full three points without overachieving—a controlled, professional performance befitting the stronger side.
The prediction's accuracy validates our xG-based methodology: Scotland dominated the underlying metrics and converted their chances where it mattered.
Haiti
▼ under-performing
0 pts vs 0.6 expected (-0.6 delta)
Scotland
· as expected
3 pts vs 3 expected (0 delta)