Brazil 1–1 Morocco

Brazil and Morocco played to a 1-1 draw in Group C's decisive matchday, with Ismael Saibari's 21st-minute opener cancelled out by Vinícius Júnior just after the half-hour. Our model predicted a comfortable 1-0 Brazil win with 65% confidence—the exact scoreline came close but the draw bucked the 2.3-goal expected goals advantage we forecasted for the Seleção.

Morocco's performance was exceptional relative to expectations, outperforming by 1.4 points across their group campaign. Brazil underperformed, dropping one point against a 65% win-probability prediction, finishing 1 point below model expectation after two matches played.

The result tilts Group C wide open heading into final calculations, with Morocco proving a far stiffer test than xG suggested.