Scotland 0–1 Morocco

Morocco delivered exactly what our model predicted, dismantling Scotland 1-0 with an early Saibari strike in the second minute. We nailed both the scoreline and the winner's identity—a rare feat in group-stage football. Scotland's 0.8 expected goals underscored their toothless attacking display against a technically superior outfit.

The Atlas Lions controlled this contest from kickoff, with their 1.7 xG advantage translating into clinical finishing. Morocco's +122 Elo advantage proved decisive in the Boston heat, though their early goal allowed Scotland no pathway back into a match that was always theirs to lose.

Scotland performing level with expectations (3 points earned vs 3 expected). Morocco overperforming significantly: 4 points banked against 2.6 projected, a +1.4 delta that reflects ruthless execution beyond the model's baseline forecast.