Brazil 3–0 Haiti

Brazil dominated Haiti 3-0 in Philadelphia, with Matheus Cunha bagging a brace and Vinícius Júnior adding a third before half-time. Our prediction of a 4-0 Brazil win proved directionally correct, though the Seleção fell one goal short of the model's forecast.

Brazil performed UNDER expectations, securing 4 points against an anticipated 5. Haiti also finished UNDER their 0.6 expected points. The 448-Elo gap and 4.6 xG advantage proved decisive, but Brazil's clinical finishing couldn't quite match the model's attacking projection.

Our call was correct—Brazil won convincingly—but the exact scoreline eluded us. Confidence remains high at 93% in the model's predictive power despite the one-goal miss.