Canada 1–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 
Group B · Matchday 2 · 2026-06-12 · Toronto
1–1final score
1–0we predicted ✗
✨ AI analysisbacktested
Canada held; Bosnia underperforms again
Canada and Bosnia & Herzegovina played to a 1-1 draw in Toronto, denying our prediction of a 1-0 Canadian win. Jovo Lukić gave Bosnia the early lead in the 21st minute, but Cyle Larin equalized for Canada in the 78th, securing a point apiece.
Canada is performing marginally BETTER than expected, accumulating 4.0 actual points versus 3.8 projected through two matches. Bosnia & Herzegovina is performing WORSE than expected, sitting on 1.0 actual points against 1.8 projected—a notable 0.8-point shortfall.
Our model favored Canada at 53% win probability but underestimated Bosnia's resilience in drawing. The 1.6 expected goals for Canada versus 0.9 for Bosnia didn't translate to the predicted scoreline, as both sides converted limited chances.
Canada
▲ over-performing
4.0 actual vs 3.8 expected points
Bosnia & Herzegovina
▼ under-performing
1.0 actual vs 1.8 expected points
Confidence factors
📈Canada +10 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9
🔥Form — vs —
🏟️Canada playing at home
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.5 xG)