Canada 1–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 
Group B · Matchday 2 · 2026-06-12 · Toronto
1–1final score
1–0we predicted ✗
📐 model analysisbacktested
Honours even in Group B
Canada and Bosnia & Herzegovina drew 1–1 in Group B. Scorers: Cyle Larin (78'); Jovo Lukić (21').
Our model leaned Canada (53%) with a 1–0 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — Canada: 7 pts from 5, right in line with the 7.2 expected. Bosnia & Herzegovina: 4 pts from 4, right in line with the 4.3 expected.
Canada
· as expected
7 pts from 5, right in line with the 7.2 expected.
Bosnia & Herzegovina
· as expected
4 pts from 4, right in line with the 4.3 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Canada +10 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9
🔥Form — vs —
🏟️Canada playing at home
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.5 xG)