Qatar 1–1 Switzerland
Qatar vs Switzerland 
Group B · Matchday 3 · 2026-06-13 · San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
1–1final score
0–1we predicted ✗
✨ AI analysisbacktested
Late Drama Denies Switzerland; Qatar Steals Point
Switzerland dominated early through Breel Embolo's 17th-minute opener, but Qatar refused to fold. A stunning 90+4' leveller from Miro Muheim snatched a 1-1 draw in Santa Clara, defying our 62% confidence prediction of a Swiss win.
Our model backed Switzerland at 62% win probability with a projected 0-1 scoreline—we got the winner right but missed the shock equaliser. The xG (0.8-1.8) roughly aligned with play, yet Qatar's late heroics and Switzerland's failure to convert dominance proved decisive.
Switzerland still banked a point and sits ahead on expected performance. Qatar, however, punched above their weight to claim a draw they had no right to get.
Qatar
▲ over-performing
Expected 1.5pts, earned 1pt (−0.5), but 1-1 draw was massive overperformance
Switzerland
· as expected
Expected 3.9pts, earned 4pts (+0.1), slight overdelivery despite dropped win
Confidence factors
📈Switzerland +140 Elo
⚽Expected goals 0.8 – 1.8
🔥Form — vs —
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.6 xG)