Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina

Switzerland cruised to a 4-1 victory over Bosnia & Herzegovina in Los Angeles, with Manzambi bagging a brace and late strikes from Vargas and Xhaka sealing a dominant display. Our model predicted a 1-0 Swiss win with 52% confidence—we nailed the result, though the scoreline proved far more emphatic than expected.

The Elo advantage (+86 favoring Switzerland) and xG edge (1.6-0.9) signaled control, but Switzerland's clinical finishing in the final 20 minutes turned a narrow forecast into a rout. Bosnia mustered a consolation through Mahmic but offered little resistance once the Swiss broke through.

Switzerland performing exactly level with expectation (0.1 delta), while Bosnia underperformed their projected points (-0.8). A prediction validated despite the margin of victory being wider than modeled.