Canada 6–0 Qatar

Canada cruised to a 6-0 rout of Qatar in Vancouver, with Jonathan David bagging a hat-trick and four different scorers finding the net. We predicted a 1-0 Canada win with 58% confidence—we nailed the result but massively underestimated the scale of the victory.

Our model expected 1.7 goals from Canada and 0.8 from Qatar across balanced play. The actual game saw Canada unleash far superior attacking force, scoring six unanswered goals to completely overwhelm their opponents.

Canada slightly exceeded expectations (+0.2 points), while Qatar underperformed materially (-0.5 points). The hosts' dominance was total and clinical.