Norway 3–2 Senegal
Norway vs Senegal 
Group I · Matchday 12 · 2026-06-22 · New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
3–2final score
1–0we predicted ✓
📐 model analysislocked
Norway deliver as predicted
Norway beat Senegal 3–2 in Group I. Scorers: Marcus Holmgren Pedersen (43'), Erling Haaland (48'), Erling Haaland (58'); Ismaïla Sarr (53'), Ismaïla Sarr (90+3').
Our model backed Norway at 39% and predicted 1–0 — the right call on the result.
Tournament so far — Norway: 6 pts from 2 — about 2.4 above the 3.6 our model expected. Senegal: just 0 pts from 2, roughly 1.6 below the 1.6 expected.
Norway
▲ over-performing
6 pts from 2 — about 2.4 above the 3.6 our model expected.
Senegal
▼ under-performing
just 0 pts from 2, roughly 1.6 below the 1.6 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Norway +16 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1
🔥Form W vs L
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.4 xG)