France 3–1 Senegal

France dispatched Senegal 3-1 in New York to stay perfect in Group I. Our prediction of a 2-0 French win proved directionally correct—we nailed the winner but underestimated the margin by one goal.

The model expected France to create 2.5 xG and Senegal just 0.6, and the actual output vindicated that gap. Mbappé netted twice (66', 90+6'), while Barcola added a third late on; Mbaye's 90+5' consolation proved Senegal weren't entirely toothless.

France performed *slightly over* expectation (+0.5 points vs. 2.5 expected), converting their dominance into maximum points. Senegal underperformed (-0.3 points), though their single goal suggests they offered more resistance than the underlying metrics predicted.