Iraq 1–4 Norway

Norway crushed Iraq 4-1 in Boston to deliver our predicted victory, though we badly underestimated the margin. Erling Haaland bagged two early strikes, and the Norwegians added two more to put this one out of reach by halftime.

Our model projected a 1-0 Norway win with 66% confidence, but the Scandinavians had other ideas. Iraq's lone goal through Aymen Hussein came too late to flatter a dominant performance that saw Norway create far more than the expected 1.9 xG.

Norway exceeded expectations with a ruthless finish. Iraq underperformed relative to their pre-match projections, earning zero points instead of the 0.6 expected.