Senegal vs Iraq prediction
Senegal vs Iraq 
Group I · Matchday 16 · 2026-06-26 · Toronto
2–0predicted score
71%Senegal to win
✨ AI analysislocked
Senegal favored to flex on struggling Iraq
Our model backs Senegal at 71% to win, predicting a 2-0 victory in Toronto. The +189 Elo advantage is decisive, underpinned by a stark xG gap of 2.1 to 0.7—Senegal should dominate both the ball and clear chances.
Both teams arrive in poor form, each having lost their opening match. Yet Senegal's superior setup and tempo control (balanced 2.8 xG) suggest they'll convert their dominance into goals while keeping Iraq at arm's length.
Confidence sits at 71%, supported by the Elo gap and shot quality differential. A Senegal clean sheet win is the most likely outcome.
Senegal
· as expected
0 pts from 1 match; expected 0.3 pts (delta -0.3)
Iraq
· as expected
0 pts from 1 match; expected 0.6 pts (delta -0.6)
Confidence factors
📈Senegal +189 Elo
⚽Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7
🔥Form L vs L
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.8 xG)