England 4–2 Croatia
England vs Croatia 
Group L · Matchday 7 · 2026-06-17 · Dallas (Arlington)
4–2final score
1–0we predicted ✓
📐 model analysisbacktested
England deliver as predicted
England beat Croatia 4–2 in Group L. Scorers: Harry Kane (12'), Harry Kane (42'), Jude Bellingham (47'), Marcus Rashford (85'); Martin Baturina (36'), Petar Musa (45+5').
Our model backed England at 56% and predicted 1–0 — the right call on the result.
Tournament so far — England: 14 pts from 6, right in line with the 14.5 expected. Croatia: 6 pts from 4, right in line with the 6.5 expected.
England
· as expected
14 pts from 6, right in line with the 14.5 expected.
Croatia
· as expected
6 pts from 4, right in line with the 6.5 expected.
Confidence factors
📈England +105 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.6 – 0.9
🔥Form — vs —
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.5 xG)