England 4–2 Croatia

England demolished Croatia 4-2 in Arlington, with Harry Kane bagging a brace and Jude Bellingham adding another. Our prediction nailed the winner, though the scoreline proved far more explosive than the modest 1-0 we forecasted.

England vastly overperformed expectations, converting their 1.6 xG into four goals and banking 1.1 more points than the model anticipated. Croatia, meanwhile, underdelivered despite a spirited effort—they grabbed two goals but fell 0.8 points short of their projected return.

A compelling upset of the predicted script: England's clinical finishing and Bellingham's early second-half strike turned what looked like a tight affair into a rout.