Ghana 1–0 Panama

Ghana's Caleb Yirinkyi struck in the 90+5th minute to deliver a 1-0 victory over Panama, clinching all three points in a contest decided by drama rather than dominance. Our model predicted exactly this scoreline with 43% confidence, nailing both the result and the final tally.

Ghana vastly outperformed expectations, converting a 1.6 expected-point haul into a full three-point haul (+1.4 delta). Panama, conversely, underdelivered significantly, posting zero actual points against 1.2 expected, a -1.2 swing that reflects a competitive match that slipped away late.

The xG margins (1.4-1.1 favoring Ghana) aligned with the outcome, though the timing—a last-gasp winner—added theatre to what remained tactically balanced.