France 0–2 Spain
France vs Spain 
SF · Semi-final · 2026-07-14 · Dallas (Arlington)
0–2final score
1–0we predicted ✗
📐 model analysislocked
Spain defy the model
Spain beat France 2–0 in Semi-final. Scorers: Mikel Oyarzabal (22'), Pedro Porro (58').
Our model leaned France (43%) with a 1–0 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — France: 18 pts from 7, right in line with the 17.4 expected. Spain: 19 pts from 7 — about 3.4 above the 15.6 our model expected.
France
· as expected
18 pts from 7, right in line with the 17.4 expected.
Spain
▲ over-performing
19 pts from 7 — about 3.4 above the 15.6 our model expected.
Confidence factors
📈France +24 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.5 – 1.2
🔥Form WWWWW vs WWWWW
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.7 xG)