Brazil 1–2 Norway
Brazil vs Norway 
R16 · Round of 16 · 2026-07-05 · New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
1–2final score
2–0we predicted ✗
📐 model analysislocked
Norway defy the model
Norway beat Brazil 2–1 in Round of 16. Scorers: Neymar (90+10'); Erling Haaland (79'), Erling Haaland (90').
Our model leaned Brazil (71%) with a 2–0 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — Brazil: just 10 pts from 5, roughly 2.1 below the 12.1 expected. Norway: 12 pts from 5 — about 6 above the 6 our model expected.
Brazil
▼ under-performing
just 10 pts from 5, roughly 2.1 below the 12.1 expected.
Norway
▲ over-performing
12 pts from 5 — about 6 above the 6 our model expected.
Confidence factors
📈Brazil +194 Elo
⚽Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7
🔥Form DWWW vs WWLW
⏱️High-scoring lean (2.8 xG)