France 4–6 England
France vs England 
3rd · Match for third place · 2026-07-18 · Miami (Miami Gardens)
4–6final score
1–0we predicted ✗
📐 model analysislocked
England defy the model
England beat France 6–4 in Match for third place. Scorers: Kylian Mbappé (48'), Bradley Barcola (54'), Kylian Mbappé (66'), Ousmane Dembélé (90+6'); Declan Rice (3'), Ezri Konsa (18'), Bukayo Saka (37'), Bukayo Saka (45+1'), Bukayo Saka (87'), Jude Bellingham (90+8').
Our model leaned France (50%) with a 1–0 projection, so this one went against us.
Tournament so far — France: just 18 pts from 8, roughly 1.2 below the 19.2 expected. England: 17 pts from 8, right in line with the 16.5 expected.
France
▼ under-performing
just 18 pts from 8, roughly 1.2 below the 19.2 expected.
England
· as expected
17 pts from 8, right in line with the 16.5 expected.
Confidence factors
📈France +77 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.5 – 1.0
🔥Form WWWWL vs WWWDL
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.5 xG)