Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction

Uruguay enters as dominant 77% win probability favorites backed by a +228 Elo advantage and a xG prediction of 2.4–0.6. Our model expects a comfortable 2-0 Uruguay victory with 77% confidence, leaning into their significant quality gap.

Both sides arrive underperforming expectations: Uruguay netted just 1 point from an expected 2.5 across their opening match, while Cape Verde overdelivered with 1 actual point versus 0.1 projected. The form situation remains level, though Uruguay's attacking profile (3.0 total xG lean) suggests they'll find their rhythm here.

Cape Verde's shock early performance offers hope, but Uruguay's vastly superior underlying metrics make this a steep ask for the African underdogs in Miami.