Uruguay 2–2 Cape Verde

Uruguay and Cape Verde played to a 2-2 draw in Miami, defying our 77% confidence prediction of a Uruguayan victory. Maxi Araújo and Agustín Cano gave Uruguay a 2-0 halftime lead, but Cape Verde stormed back through Kevin Pina and Hélio Varela to salvage an unexpected point.

Uruguay massively underperformed expectations, earning just 2 points against our model's projection of 4.9 (delta: -2.9). Despite a dominant +228 Elo advantage and 2.4 expected goals, they failed to close out a commanding position. Cape Verde exceeded all forecasts, collecting 2 points from an expected 0.4 (delta: +1.6)—a stunning 1.6-point overperformance.

This result rewrites Group H's narrative and exposes the danger of early leads in knockout football. Cape Verde's second-half resilience proved our xG-heavy model couldn't predict late-game intensity shifts.