Spain 0–0 Cape Verde

Spain and Cape Verde played to a 0-0 stalemate in Atlanta despite our model's overwhelming 93% confidence in a Spain victory. The prediction of a 4-0 scoreline backed by 4.2 expected goals for Spain proved wildly optimistic—neither side could find the net.

Spain finished well below expectations, earning just 1 point against a projected 2.8, a -1.8 point swing that makes this their underperformance of the tournament. Cape Verde, meanwhile, exceeded all projections by securing 1 point from a game where they were given only a 1% win probability and 0.3 xG.

This is a major upset. Our 93% confidence was entirely misplaced, with Spain's clinical edge nowhere to be found and the visitors mounting a resilient defensive display.