Spain vs England prediction

Projected Match for third place tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes Spain 37% to advance, projecting a 1–0 scoreline (expected goals 1.2–1.2).

The edge comes from spain +7 elo and expected goals 1.2 – 1.2.

Form check: Spain have been under-performing expectations (just 1 pts from 1, roughly 1.8 below the 2.8 expected.); England have been over-performing expectations (3 pts from 1 — about 1.1 above the 1.9 our model expected.).