France vs Spain prediction
France vs Spain 
SF · Semi-final · 2026-07-14 · Dallas (Arlington)
1–0predicted score
42%France to advance
📐 model analysisprojected
Too close to call: France v Spain
Projected Semi-final tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes France 42% to advance, projecting a 1–0 scoreline (expected goals 1.3–1.1).
The edge comes from france +34 elo and expected goals 1.3 – 1.1.
Form check: France have been matching expectations (3 pts from 1, right in line with the 2.5 expected.); Spain have been under-performing expectations (just 1 pts from 1, roughly 1.8 below the 2.8 expected.).
France
· as expected
3 pts from 1, right in line with the 2.5 expected.
Spain
▼ under-performing
just 1 pts from 1, roughly 1.8 below the 2.8 expected.
Confidence factors
📈France +34 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.3 – 1.1
🔥Form WWW vs DWW
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.4 xG)