Brazil vs England prediction

Projected Quarter-final tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes England 41% to advance, projecting a 0–1 scoreline (expected goals 1.1–1.3).

The edge comes from england +24 elo and expected goals 1.1 – 1.3.

Form check: Brazil have been under-performing expectations (just 4 pts from 2, roughly 1 below the 5 expected.); England have been over-performing expectations (3 pts from 1 — about 1.1 above the 1.9 our model expected.).