Croatia vs Spain prediction
Croatia vs Spain 
R16 · Round of 16 · 2026-07-06 · Dallas (Arlington)
0–1predicted score
63%Spain to advance
📐 model analysisprojected
Spain edge it in our model
Projected Round of 16 tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes Spain 63% to advance, projecting a 0–1 scoreline (expected goals 0.8–1.9).
The edge comes from spain +147 elo and expected goals 0.8 – 1.9.
Form check: Croatia have been matching expectations (0 pts from 1, right in line with the 0.8 expected.); Spain have been under-performing expectations (just 1 pts from 1, roughly 1.8 below the 2.8 expected.).
Croatia
· as expected
0 pts from 1, right in line with the 0.8 expected.
Spain
▼ under-performing
just 1 pts from 1, roughly 1.8 below the 2.8 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Spain +147 Elo
⚽Expected goals 0.8 – 1.9
🔥Form LWW vs DWW
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.6 xG)