USA vs Belgium prediction
USA vs Belgium 
R16 · Round of 16 · 2026-07-06 · Seattle
0–1predicted score
53%Belgium to advance
📐 model analysisprojected
Too close to call: USA v Belgium
Projected Round of 16 tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes Belgium 53% to advance, projecting a 0–1 scoreline (expected goals 0.9–1.6).
The edge comes from belgium +93 elo and expected goals 0.9 – 1.6.
Form check: USA have been over-performing expectations (6 pts from 2 — about 1.7 above the 4.3 our model expected.); Belgium have been under-performing expectations (just 1 pts from 1, roughly 1.3 below the 2.3 expected.).
USA
▲ over-performing
6 pts from 2 — about 1.7 above the 4.3 our model expected.
Belgium
▼ under-performing
just 1 pts from 1, roughly 1.3 below the 2.3 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Belgium +93 Elo
⚽Expected goals 0.9 – 1.6
🔥Form WWW vs DWW
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.5 xG)