Mexico vs England prediction

Projected Round of 16 tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes England 74% to advance, projecting a 0–2 scoreline (expected goals 0.6–2.3).

The edge comes from england +210 elo and expected goals 0.6 – 2.3.

Form check: Mexico have been over-performing expectations (6 pts from 2 — about 1.8 above the 4.2 our model expected.); England have been over-performing expectations (3 pts from 1 — about 1.1 above the 1.9 our model expected.).