Brazil vs Norway prediction
Brazil vs Norway 
R16 · Round of 16 · 2026-07-05 · New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
2–0predicted score
72%Brazil to advance
📐 model analysisprojected
Brazil strongly fancied
Projected Round of 16 tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes Brazil 72% to advance, projecting a 2–0 scoreline (expected goals 2.2–0.7).
The edge comes from brazil +197 elo and expected goals 2.2 – 0.7.
Form check: Brazil have been under-performing expectations (just 4 pts from 2, roughly 1 below the 5 expected.); Norway have been matching expectations (3 pts from 1, right in line with the 2.2 expected.).
Brazil
▼ under-performing
just 4 pts from 2, roughly 1 below the 5 expected.
Norway
· as expected
3 pts from 1, right in line with the 2.2 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Brazil +197 Elo
⚽Expected goals 2.2 – 0.7
🔥Form DWW vs WWL
⏱️High-scoring lean (2.8 xG)