Portugal vs Paraguay prediction

Projected Round of 32 tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes Portugal 87% to advance, projecting a 3–0 scoreline (expected goals 3–0.5).

The edge comes from portugal +307 elo and expected goals 3.0 – 0.5.

Form check: Portugal have been under-performing expectations (just 1 pts from 1, roughly 1.7 below the 2.7 expected.); Paraguay have been over-performing expectations (3 pts from 2 — about 1.2 above the 1.8 our model expected.).